True North

Though you'd never know it from the NY Times' front page or the lead story on NBC, it's fact that Muqtada al-Sadr's regime is crumbling. Here's the political situation in Iraq:

Already Mr. Sadr's partisans and members of his Mahdi Army militia believe that ISCI and its affiliate party, the Badr Organization, previously known as the Badr Brigade and ISCI's armed wing, instigated the recent US-Iraqi military operations against the Mahdi Army in southern Iraq and Baghdad. They allege it was part of an ISCI/Badr plot to dismantle Sadr's organization ahead of elections.

On Friday, Sheikh Salim al-Darraji, an ISCI official based in Basra, was assassinated in a part of the city traditionally controlled by Sadrists. It comes one week after Basra's chief of military intelligence was killed in a predominantly Shiite part of eastern Baghdad.

The ultimate goal of ISCI and Badr is to consolidate their grip on southern Iraq and to create a nine-province Shiite region on par with the semiautonomous Kurdish region in the north. This is a subject of great controversy among many Iraqis, including the Sadrists.

"We believe the elections are extremely important. We will run jointly with (ISCI). We both have a significant base of public support," says Hadi al-Ameri, Badr's leader and a senior member of the Iraqi parliament.

ISCI was part of the Shiite coalition during the JJanuary and December elections in 2005. Now they're the dominant force in a major political coalition in October's elections. Wisely, they've chosen to align themselves with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.

Here's an example of Badr's blunt talk about Sadr:

Ameri, who met with Sadr in Iraq in March during the height of the Basra battles with the Mahdi Army, says he believes that the cleric bowed to intense pressure at the time and that his statement last month urging his militiamen to turn to more charitable activities is "effectively dissolving the Mahdi Army without losing face."

There's nobody with less power than a Muslim who's just gotten his backside handed to him. Put slightly differently, nothings fails like failure. Sadr trusted in Iran too much and overplayed his hand. Right now, he's paying the price for trusting Iran.

Ameri's Badr Bridgade is in such good shape that they can make this type of statement:

"We are trying to strike a balance between the Grand Satan and the Axis of Evil," jokes Ameri, referring to Iran's favored label of the US and President Bush's reference to Iraq, Iran, and North Korea.

That a Shiite leader would make such a statement speaks volumes. That wouldn't have been acceptable 2 years ago.

The bigger lesson to be learned throughout the region is that Ameri didn't reject the United State's assistance and lived to tell about it. Not only did he live to tell about it, he's about to be rewarded for his trust.

FYI to John Murtha: The civil war is over and we've entered the 'winning hearts and minds' stage of this battle.

SIDENOTE: Does anyone think that Sen. Obama will ask Mr. Ameri if he thinks the surge is working? Better question: Does anyone think that Sen. Obama will want to talk with Mr. Ameri about anything?

It would be foolish to think that Sadr and Iran don't have something planned before October's elections. They won't quietly fade into the background. They'll attempt some sort of violent act to bring chaos into the electoral equation, though I'm certain that Sadr will be in Iran at the time of the attacks.

This is a sign of Sadr's desperate situation. He can't influence Shiites with his fiery rhetoric and his militias get their heads handed to them whenever they attempt sustained acts of violence. Yes, they can occasionally assassinate someone but they can't sustain it.

The other lesson worth learning from this is that the fighting has largely subsided, the political reconciliation and elections, not firefights, are the subject of most days in Iraq. With Saddam long in their rearview, Iraqis can get on with the business of governing themselves. That's a far cry from the terror they lived under Saddam.

Don't expect to hear about how well Iraq's government is doing in the NY Times or on NBC if McCain is elected.

Now that I think of it, Sadr, NBC and the NY Times have something in common: They'll each soon be history.

Comments welcome at LFR.