| Until You Suffer Some |
 |
 |
 |
| Written by First Ringer |
| Tuesday, 12 February 2008 07:54 |
|
Minnesota’s legislature returns to action today. Prepared for another poison-filled session. Here’s one show the writer’s strike couldn’t kill. It may not be highly-acclaimed or highly-rated, but it’s back for another season with more tragedy, intrigue, sinister plots and over the top performances than at the daytime Emmys. Yes, the never-ending soap opera of the Minnesota Legislature ushers in another year and the 2008 session may be one of the most bitter ever given the major issues on the table. With a semi-conservative governor having one foot out the vice-presidential door and a DFL House and Senate boasting of veto-proof majorities on key votes, neither side has any motivation to compromise. Could we be looking at the second failed bonding bill in five sessions? Probably not in an election year, but all elements are in place when you look at what both sides will be tackling: They Came to Bury Carol, Not to Praise Her: The fate of Lt. Gov./MnDoT Chief Carol Molnau will be the biggest issue of 2008 legislature and barring the extremely unlikely event of Pawlenty pulling a Brutus, the DFL will be the ones playing the role of the Roman Imperial Senate.
Molnau’s legislative execution can’t be stayed by the Governor, but the time and date of her defeat may depend largely on the DFL’s progress on other fronts. If the House and Senate are styimed, particularly on the equally-divisive Transportation Bill, Molnau’s head might sooth the party’s activists and leadership looking for accomplishments when they return to the voters in November. With Pawlenty’s peripheral vision directed slightly south of the Capitol towards the Xcel Center, site of the Republican National Convention, the DFL might not be free of Molnau should they fire her. A Governor Carol Molnau, post November, might be more than happy to exact a little legislative revenge, providing for an even more contentious atmosphere in St. Paul. But should the DFL stay the execution, it will be less because of any potential repercussions and more likely out of hopes in hanging Molnau as an albatross around Pawlenty’s neck. The tactic hasn’t worked so far. More Mileage Out of the Gas Tax: The Transportation Bill might as well be issue number 1A in St. Paul on Tuesday as Democrats are now armed with a veto override in the Senate and claim to have the votes needed in the House. Their predictions may have gained merit with the death of the infamous five-cent gas tax as the controversal centerpiece of any legislation. Instead, DFL legislators appear to be proposing a one-cent increase over five years - a proposal that is likely to grab enough Republican votes to easily make the override and places Pawlenty in the position of vetoing an increase far less opposed than the one he terminated in 2007. How less controversal is a one-cent a year increase over five years? Edina Rep. Ron Erhardt, a bane of Minnesota conservatives as a long-time backer of increased transportation funding regardless of the source, is being challenged from his right for the Republican endorsement - and his challenger supports the one-cent over five years plan.
Had Democrats attempted to simply revive the 2007 measure - and certainly a few in the legislature may try - Republicans would have cheered any outcome, be it another veto or an override given the lack of popular support for a five-cent increase (even the Strib’s Minnesota Poll can’t massage the numbers to a majority in favor of it). But a one-cent increase may even find favor with the masses, despite the fact its major effect on transportation will be symbolic in nature. The biggest question for any tax will likely be what the rest of the bill it comes with looks like. Given the DFL’s confident, if not downright cocky attitude with their near veto-proof majorities, expect any transportation legislation to be stuffed with more pork than a bacon-fed hog. Will the Hole Match the Hype?: The old saying goes that the two best things Congress does is overracting and nothing. News of a $373 million shortfall seemed to spur the Minnesota legislature to the former. Sen. Tom Bakk suggested calling a special session. House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher practically proposed a Minnesota equivalent of the New Deal era National Recovery Administration, suggesting using the upcoming bonding bill (the supposedly main objective of these election year sessions) to put Minnesotans to work. The deficit will almost certainly increase but enough “rainy day” funds exist to cover the problem for the next budgeting session short of a deep and biting recession. Democrats say they want to tackle the deficit first and foremost after arriving in St. Paul. But considering any tax increase to cover a deficit this small won’t make past Pawlenty’s veto, it remains to be seen how much time the House and Senate are really interested in dedicating to fixing to what one could facetiously call a rounding error in Minnesota’s budget. Universally Ignored: The subject of health care is always considered to be one of the top priorities of every legislative session and 2008 will likely see the same clockwork-like precision of the dance. The DFL proposes a universal health care system - Check. Republicans create “blue-ribbon” or “bipartisan” task force - Done. Nothing concrete gets passed - see me in May or June. Pawlenty of Talk: The lack of any signature conservative legislation entering the session suggests Pawlenty isn’t going overboard in auditioning for the role as much as it reflects the reality that nothing the Governor presents is going to get passed anyway. But expect 2008 to be much more difficult for T-Paw than 2007 as the DFL looks to embarass him by either making him look irrelevant or forcing him to sign bills that will depress a GOP base already in need of some Prozac. Regardless of Pawlenty’s rising national profile, there’s a gubernatorial election in 2010 and until the situation suggests otherwise, Pawlenty is the presumptive Republican nominee - meaning Democrats need to find ways to scuff the Governor’s 59% approval rating (forgive me if there is a more current number). In all, look for more of the same - gridlock. The session may look a lot like 2004 in which no bonding bill passed. Considering House Republicans took a bath in the election results that year, House Democrats and their Senate counterparts may well be willing to settle for even less than half-a-loaf from Pawlenty instead of no loaf at all and a chance at a similar electoral fate. Share this TRUE NORTH article with your social network now! 
  |
The fact that the $373 million hole in a nearly $35 billion budget needs to be patched by June of 2009 hasn’t stopped the DFL from proposing everything short of Larry Pogemiller-led Fireside Chats to address the problem. 
Perhaps the biggest issue underlying every other this session will be Tim Pawlenty’s potential role as the GOP’s Vice-Presidential candidate. Rumors of Pawlenty’s selection have been rife throughout the Beltway and blogosphere and while the actual pick may not come until weeks or even days before the September Republican convention, certainly the media and the DFL will be studying the Governor’s moves with an eye on his bid for higher office - whether Pawlenty is doing the same or not. 
