Jan 21 Should Obama Lead, Follow, or Get Out of the Way?

Should Presidents lead, follow, or get out of the way?

Yes, is the answer.

I was thinking about this question because much of the discussion regarding the Massachusetts election centers on its implications for President Obama’s legislative centerpiece, the health care reform bill.

Republicans are pointing out, and they are right, that voters have been sending a message to Washington that they don’t like the health care proposal, and they want it killed. It wasn’t only Massachusetts voters, by the way, but Virginia and New Jersey voters and Americans as a whole through polls and in townhall meetings.

But I have been chewing over the question of what responsibility Obama and Congress have to rethink their legislative agenda in light of public opposition. Politically it would be wise to change course, and fast, but governing is not just about politics.

Obama and his liberal allies seem to believe that whatever its flaws, the health care reform package they put together is a substantial improvement over the current health care system. They assert, I assume honestly, that without these reforms our country will go bankrupt. Those beliefs are not shared by the majority of Americans nor by me, although almost everyone agrees that the current arrangements are deeply flawed and in need of real reform. If Obama does believe he is on the right path, should he change course to save his political hide?

This obviously brings up the question of whether politicians should lead, follow, or get out of the way.

Leadership is a grossly overrated virtue. Although necessary in times of crisis, and even in the management of institutions, great leaders are more a danger than a blessing in more normal times. Every politician wants to be a leader, but in a reasonably well-functioning society political leaders usually just muck things up. Government, at its best, tends to muddle through and satisfice. Good enough is a reasonable goal for government.

Successful politicians often follow or get out of the way, taking credit for things for which they have little responsibility. That’s fine by me. It strokes their egos and leaves the private sector to pursue the things which improve our lives. Government is especially good at providing pipes, pavement, police, and parks, and usually should stick to those things.

However, while leadership is often overrated, it is a quality we need in abundance in times of crisis. And in those times we need our politicians to pay attention to public opinion, but not be solely guided by it. Wars are the most obvious circumstance where this is true. Roosevelt maneuvered to help our allies in the early days of WWII, despite public opposition. Lincoln stayed the course when the Civil War was going badly. Nixon had a tough nut to crack in Vietnam. Reagan stayed the course during both economic crisis and to conclude the Cold War. And of course both Presidents Bush had their own wars to deal with.

Now if Obama is correct in his assertion that health care is in crisis and that the current course will bankrupt the country, one could argue that pushing forward in spite of the polls and political consequences is the right thing to do. I think it is an open question whether he or many of his allies believe this, or simply believed that getting a bill passed would be an historic achievement for which they would be lauded for decades. But assuming sincerity, Obama would be failing the test of leadership were he to abandon course due to political headwinds.

In some ways Obama faces a parallel situation to what Bush faced after his crushing electoral defeat in 2006, largely due to Iraq fatigue. In those circumstances Bush shifted course from an unpopular unsuccessful strategy to an initially unpopular successful strategy. He did so because he sincerely believed the stakes were too high to bow to political pressures.  He read the polls, ignored them, and was eventually proven right.

Does Obama believe the same? I don’t know. I believe that his diagnosis of the situation is deeply flawed and his solution will lead to disaster. Apparently Obama does not.

If Obama sincerely believes the American health care system is so deeply flawed that it will cripple the country, then I see no alternative to him choosing the hard path of leadership. Following or getting out of the way would not be options.

In sum, I hope Obama is a cynical politician who conjured up a phony crisis to shove a questionable policy  down our throats. If not, he has little choice but to lead and ask the rest of us to follow him into the bowels of hell.

cross posted from The David Strom Show Blog