Aug 18 KSTP Poll Highlights Franken's Troubles

The most recent KSTP/SurveyUSA poll shows a tightening race but that Al Franken still having significant difficulties. Here's one thing that should have Franken's campaign worried:

Seventy-four percent of likely DFL voters said they support Franken.

I'm confident that more than 74 percent of Democrats will vote for Franken, though I don't know if it'll be significantly higher than that. The reason why this statistic should worry Franken is because it suggests there isn't a positive enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats.

Let's remember those early primaries where GOP turnout was less than half of the Democrats' primary turnout. Talk swept through the punditocracy that this would be a disastrous year for Republicans, that Democrats might gain the trifecta of holding the White House, increasing their majority in the House and having a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

Then came the Jeremiah Wright tapes and Rush's Operation Chaos. Rush's Operation Chaos lengthened the primary process. The Wright tapes put Obama back on his heals. Suddenly discord appeared in the Democrats' ranks. That dissention still exists.

Factor in Mr. Franken's offputting jokes and his temper and you'll have problems connecting with voters, even from your own party.

Here's another statistic that should worry Franken:

Republican incumbent Norm Coleman leads DFL challenger Al Franken by seven points, 46 to 39.

I've been tracking these polls for months. Franken has difficulty reaching the mid forties. In fact, he's occasionally had difficulty reaching the forties. It's difficult to take a challenger seriously if they can't break the forty percent mark.

The important thing going forward for the Coleman campaign is to just keep doing the solid thing. Sen. Coleman got a significant bump in the polls when he announced his pro-drilling, pro-nuclear power bill. That told Republicans that he was serious about solving the energy crisis.

His next step forward is to avoid joining in any Gang of 10 'compromise' disasters. If Sen. Coleman steadfastly opposes major tax increases like those found in the Gang of 10 bill, he'll be on the right side of the energy issue.

By itself, that's a big deal because it's the most important issue this year.

Here's one final statistic that should worry Franken:

Coleman leads Franken by 11 points among men 50-39. He also leads by three points among women, 42 to 39.

Here's an old joke about Democrats and women: What do you call a Democrat that doesn't win the women's vote? Out of work. Granted, it isn't a funny joke but it's accurate. Democrats that don't do well with women are toast because they historically lose the male vote by double digits.

This race isn't over but I'd rather be in Sen. Coleman's shoes than Franken's.

Comments welcome at LFR.