True North

Eric Black's post about the Tarryl Clark-Maureen Reed contest is potentially damaging to Tarryl of a couple of reasons. First, according to Eric's reporting, it sounds like Dr. Reed is prepared to take Tarryl on in a primary:

I told Isaacson that that sounded pretty close to declaring that Reed will run in the primary if Clark gets the endorsement. He replied that that decision has not been made but:

"I would say that we're getting a lot closer to making that decision. I would expect that some decision will be made about that in the near future."

Most primary fights don't turn out as dramatic as when they're first announced, mostly because activists don't like voting against the endorsed candidate. Still, Reed has the financial wherewithal to be a thorn in Tarryl's side. More problematic for Tarryl, though, is that Dr. Reed is painting Tarryl as a leftist who represents the DFL leadership, not the people:

Isaacson didn't concede anything, and Reed is still seeking the DFL endorsement. But Iaacson didn't dispute that Clark has a commanding position in the contest for the DFL endorsement. "The question is: How do we get Michele Bachmann out of office? The answer is: It's going to have to be a moderate Democrat. We're not sure that the convention is the way to manage that."

It'll be difficult for Tarryl to portray herself as a moderate in the general election because she's voted for each of the biggest tax increases in Minnesota history. That isn't the way to endear yourself to small businesses who worry about the DFL's spending addiction.

Getting characterized as a spend- and tax-aholic is political death this cycle. Controlling spending is the top-rated issue with people in poll after poll, even surpassing job creation. The other problematic issue Tarryl has is her inflexibility on cutting spending and reforming government.

There's a stark difference between Tarryl and Michele on this issue, one that can't be papered over or spun. People will want to know why Tarryl voted to let the DFL spend the entier surplus in 2007 when the economy was weakening. Tarryl's attitude that 'government should do many good things' can't be easily explained away.

That might've been innocuous when Tarryl said it because the economy wasn't in the bad shape it's currently in. It's dangerous now thanks to the unprecedented deficits we're dealing with today. (HINT: The DFL will learn that it's a toxic environment for being fiscally irresponsible.)

Tarryl would have a better shot if the economy was in the midst of a strong recovery. That's the only time when her irresponsible spending habits might be justifiable. Tarryl's agenda of taxing small businesses into oblivion to pay for her unprecedented and unsustainable spending habits.

Businesses want stability in taxations, regulation and spending. Without that, businesses can't know what their labor costs are. When businesses don't know how much labor will cost them, they're less likely to hire people, especially if the economy is slowing or in recession. It's nothing more complicated than that.

By comparison, Michele's every vote has been cast for stabilizing spending, reforming programs and keeping various levels of government out of taxpayers' wallets.

If Tarryl gets the DFL's endorsement, this will be a classic matchup between a reactionary liberal and a visionary conservative. This election cycle, the odds are that conservatives will win most of those matchups. I suspect that's what the outcome of the CD-6 race will be, too.

Comments welcome at LFR.

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