True North

According to this article, there isn't room for doubt that Al Franken's tax fiasco is hurting him, at least for the general election. Here's the first question in the KSTP-SurveyUSA poll on Franken:

Al Franken the DFL candidate for U.S. Senate said he will pay about $70,000 in back income taxes to 17 states for incorrectly filing his tax returns over a five-year period. He also paid a fine to the state of New York for not paying for workers compensation insurance for workers he employed there. Knowing this, would you be more likely to vote for Al Franken for U.S. Senate? Less likely? Or would it not make a difference?

Here's how people responded:

59% said they were less likely to vote for Franken.

7% said that they were more likely to vote for Franken.

31% said it wouldn't make a difference.

That's only part of Franken's problems. Here's the first question in another KSTP-SurveyUSA poll:

Minnesota will elect a United States Senator in November 2008. If the election for United States Senator were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Norm Coleman and DFL candidate Al Franken, who would you vote for?

Here's the results:

52% would vote for Sen. Coleman

42% would vote for Franken

Being in the low 40's isn't good news for Franken. What's worse is that Sen. Coleman is getting a majority of women voters. Democrats can't win if they can't win a majority of the women vote. the worst news for Franken is that 99% of Coleman's GOP base supports him while only 67% of Franken's DFL base support him:

But since the last poll, Coleman has solidified his base with 99 percent of Republicans saying they support him. That's up seven points.

Franken has support from 67 percent of Democrats, which is down eight points.

The only good news in this poll for Franken heading into the DFL State Convention is that Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer is in worse shape:

What if the only two candidates on the ballot for United States Senator were Republican Norm Coleman and DFL candidate Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer?

Sen. Coleman 55%

Pallmeyer 36%

This has to be unsettling news for State DFL Chairman Brian Melendez. Had the DFL played their cards right, they could've consolidated their grip in St. Paul and in DC. Instead, they're forced to defend Franken, their imminent pick to challenge Sen. Coleman. They're facing the daunting challenge of telling voters that they're done with their tax increasing ways, too. With the Tax Bill soon to be vetoed by Gov. Pawlenty, it'll be difficult to imagine the DFL giving up on increasing those taxes.

You'd have a better chance of selling fur coats at a PETA convention than selling tax increases to informed Minnesotans right now.

Comments welcome at LFR.