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Yesterday, I ran across a poll from Goodwin Victoria Simon Research on Swing State Project. Here's what SSP said:
How big will 2008 be? Big enough to see a few presumed safe Republican districts painted blue in November? Anything's possible.
A Goodwin Simon Victoria Research poll (5/19-22, likely voters) of Minnesota's 2nd CD suggests that this R+2.7 district is turning a bluer shade of pale. From the polling memo:
It has become very clear in this election cycle that many Congressional seats formerly considered "Republican" seats are now in play; very little is safe for the GOP at present. Our recent poll results indicate that Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District has officially reached the tipping point, as the generic ballot between any "Democrat" and a "Republican" for Congress starts out as tied, 40% to 40%, for the first time in this district's history. Add to this Sarvi's compelling personal narrative and moderate inclinations, and Democrats have a real chance to take this district in November.
Today, I googled Steve Sarvi to see what, if any, play this poll was getting. Instead of finding the Sarvi playing this poll up, I found an article telling a much different story. Here's what that article said:
Rep. John Kline, R-Lakeville, held a 20-point lead over Democratic candidate Steve Sarvi of Watertown according to a recent poll commissioned by the Sarvi campaign, but the challenger took hope from apparent generic support for a Democratic candidate against the three-term lawmaker.
The poll of 400 likely voters in the southeastern 2nd Congressional District was conducted May 19-22 by Goodwin Simon Victoria Research. It found Kline leading Sarvi 48 percent to 28 percent when voters were asked who they would choose if the election were held that day. The poll had a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.
Among undecided voters, 5 percent each said they leaned toward Kline, a retired Marine colonel, or Sarvi, an Iraq veteran and former city administrator for Victoria.
Sarvi issued the results Thursday without including the head-to-head percentages, but provided them on request. His campaign sought to emphasize a tie, at 40 percent each, in the so-called generic ballot, where respondents were asked whether they support a Democrat or Republican for Congress. The result indicated to Sarvi that he has an opportunity to even the race with the better-known Kline, if the campaign can reach voters, his campaign manager Bridget Cusick said.
It's interesting that the post and the article was based on polling done by Goodwin Victoria Simon Research. It's more interesting to Team Sarvi spinning the polling this way. Ms. Cusick likely won't volunteer this answer she must know that the generic ballot is meaningless. She must know that horserace numbers are what matter.
It's worth noting what the reporter said, too, because it's quite telling:
His campaign sought to emphasize a tie, at 40 percent each, in the so-called generic ballot, where respondents were asked whether they support a Democrat or Republican for Congress.
In other words, they're spinning to the Nth degree. They know that the generic ballot is meaningless.
Another thing I find interesting is that this is that this poll was the Sarvi campaign's in-house polling. Usually, that type of polling isn't released unless it's particularly good news for their candidate. Frankly, I don't see anything positive for Sarvi in this poll.
Similarly, I don't find anything but spin in Goodwin Victoria Simon Research's memo. As delusional as their memo is, SSP's commentary is more delusional:
With no head-to-heads released, we can safely assume that Kline leads at this early stage. However, after hearing a positive statement about the Democratic candidate, Steve Sarvi, Sarvi pulls ahead by 49%-37%.
SSP's assumptions have left them looking just a little bit foolish. That's the price people pay when they assume that their best case scenario is reality. In this instnace, it's obvious that SSP is doing its best to make this look closer than it is.
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