True North

According to Larry's post, Michele Bachmann is sitting in solid financial shape heading into the campaign season. Here's why I think that:

The Associated Press is reporting that U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., raised $346,000 for her re-election bid in the first quarter of 2008.

She has more than $1 million in the bank as of the beginning of this month, more than 10 times either of the DFLers who hope to take her on, Elwyn Tinklenberg or Bob Olson.

Tinklenberg raised $127,000 and had $102,000 on hand, while Olson raised $24,000 and had $112,000 on hand, after loaning his campaign more than $60,000.

It isn't a stretch to say that interest in Tinklenberg and Olson is minimal at best. both candidates have flaws that the activists are having difficulty looking past. While I won't paint this race as over, I'm perfectly willing to paint this as an uphill challenge for either Mr. Tinklenberg. I think it's safe to say that Mr. Olson doesn't stand a fighting chance even if the perfect storm developed.

Despite these fundraising numbers, the Strib's Bob von Sternberg implies that this is a hotly contested seat:

First-term Rep. Michele Bachmann is getting a financial helping hand in her reelection bid from a national Republican Party fund that tries to assist candidates who are seen as vulnerable and in the Democrats' cross hairs.

To be fair to Mr. Sternberg, he later said this:

The cash from the ROMP program may be more symbolic than substantive, according to Federal Election Commission records. Through the end of last year, Bachmann already had raised nearly $1.2 million for her reelection bid, triple the amount raised by her two DFL challengers combined.

If this fundraising trend continues, the DCCC support for Mr. Tinklenberg might quickly evaporate.

I've talked with several DFL activists about Tinklenberg. Each of these activists initially prefered Olson over Tinklenberg but soured on Olson after he took the attack dog approach at a recent debate. These activists didn't think highly of Mr. Tinklenberg, partially because of his career as a lobbyist, partially because of his "less than stellar" progressive history.

Despite the fundraising disparity, John Wodele had to say something. Here's his quote in the Strib:

John Wodele, a spokesman for Sixth District DFL candidate Elwyn Tinklenberg, said the cash infusion "confirms the fact that Republicans are worried about the Sixth District, as they should be."

It does nothing of the sort, Mr. Wodele. What it says is that the NRCC isn't willing to give Mr. Tinklenberg a fighting shot. Mr. Wodele can say whatever he wants but he must know that the fundraising numbers don't tell the tale that Tinklenberg will be competitive.

Comments welcome at LFR.