Each election, the media latches onto a group of voters who tipped the election for this candidate or that. In 1996, soccer moms were the group that tipped the election in Clinton’s direction. In 2004, security moms and NASCAR dads tipped the election in George W. Bush’s direction. In 2010, Momma Grizzlies led to the biggest up- and down-ticket trouncing in modern political history.
It isn’t surprising that Salena Zito’s latest column has identified this year’s swing voters:
CANTON, Ohio — Rudy is the quintessential average white guy, right down to his last name. “It literally is Guy,” he said, laughing at the irony.
Born in New Eagle and raised in Charleroi in Pennsylvania’s Monongahela Valley, Guy comes from a long line of Democrats. “My grandfather worked at Corning Glass, my father worked in the mines, the steel mill and finally at Corning,” he recalled. “The family always had union ties, and that usually meant a tie to the Democratic Party.”
That’s no longer true for him, however: “As my life started to improve financially, I realized that unions seemed to be damaging the economy and Democrat legislation always seemed to impact my wallet.”
It’s true that President Obama carried average white guys in 2008. Nonetheless, President Obama’s connection to average working Joes was tenuous at best.
Things started going downhill for President Obama with average white guys when he started helping his political allies (think Solyndra). They tumbled further downhill for him when he started picking fights with average white guy industries to energize his base (think coal mining in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Indiana).
If this article is representative of what’s happening in the Rust Belt states, it’s fair to think that President Obama’s policies are creating the newest generation of Reagan Democrats.
I wrote that President Obama and Sen. Brown are vulnerable in Ohio. Salena Zito’s article, coupled with the most recent polling paint a picture that’s disconcerting to Mssrs. Axelrod and Plouffe.
President Obama’s coalition of 2008 has shrunk substantially. Doctors don’t like him. Young people see the debt he’s heaping on their shoulders. Union members are getting shafted by him. Instead, he’s doing what the militant environmentalists want him to do.
Simply put, President Obama’s policies are making him vulnerable this time. If President Obama is defeated this November, which I think will happen, he’ll only have himself to blame.
Not standing up to thugs has a way of coming back to bite you in general elections, doesn’t it?
UPDATE: Follow this link for a more comprehensive look at the state of the race.
Comments welcome at Let Freedom Ring.